Boeing forecasts China demand at US$1 trillion
Boeing said it is projecting that China will need 6,810 new airplanes over the next 20 years. Boeing released its annual China Current Market Outlook (CMO) in Beijing on 13 September and said the value of those planes will top US$1.025 trillion, making the Middle Kingdom the first trillion-dollar aviation market in Boeing's forecast.
"As China transitions to a more consumer-based economy, aviation will play a key role in its economic development," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Because travel and transportation are key services, we expect to see passenger traffic grow 6.4 percent annually in China over the next 20 years."
Boeing predicts China will need 5,110 new single-aisle airplanes through 2035, accounting for 75 percent of the total new deliveries. Low-cost carriers and full-service airlines have been adding airplanes and expanding new point-to-point services to cater for both leisure and business travel demand from a rising middle class in China and throughout Asia. Boeing forecasts the widebody fleet will triple in size, requiring 1,560 new airplanes.
China's single-aisle fleet currently accounts for about 18 percent of global single-aisle aircraft; however, China's widebody fleet only represents approximately 5 percent of the global widebody segment.
"The continuing expansion of China's middle class, coupled with new visa policies and a wide range of widebody airplanes with new technologies, capabilities and efficiencies, gives us every reason to expect a very bright future for China's long-haul market," said Tinseth.
Driven by China's growing e-commerce business – already the largest in the world – air cargo is expected to become a key driver for the continuous growth of aviation in China, with the need for 180 new freighters and 410 converted freighters.
Worldwide, Boeing projects investments of US$5.9 trillion for 39,620 new commercial airplanes to be delivered during the next 20 years.